Baveno VII Criteria for the Exclusion of Esophageal Varices in a Peruvian Population: Cross-Sectional Study

Abstract

Introduction: Esophageal varices represent one of the main complications in patients with liver cirrhosis. The main objective was to determine the diagnostic performance of the new Baveno VII criteria to exclude the presence of esophageal varices in compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), in an independent Peruvian population. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional study, including patients with cACLD, upper digestive endoscopy, and transient hepatic elastography from January 2017 to December 2019. Results: The mean age was 59.4 (12.9) years, while the mean measurement of liver stiffness was 27.21 (14.6) kPa. The prevalence of esophageal varices was 85.6%; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (63.6%) was the most prevalent etiology, followed by viral hepatitis (14.4%). For esophageal varices exclusion, Baveno VII criteria for all etiologies demonstrated adequate sensitivity and negative predictive value (sensitivity: 96.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 92.3%-98.8%; negative predictive value: 76.9%, 95% CI: 56.4% -91%). However, better diagnostic performance was found when applying the Baveno VII criteria without considering NAFLD patients (sensitivity: 98.4%, 95% CI: 79.2% -99.2%; negative predictive value: 90.9%, 95% CI: 79.2% -99.2%). This would prevent 14% of endoscopic studies with a 9% risk of failing to detect esophageal varices. Conclusions: The Baveno VII criteria present good diagnostic performance for the exclusion of esophageal varices, especially in patients with cACLD without NAFLD, in an independent Peruvian population.