Comparative Analysis of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Wavelet Integrated Artificial Neural Network (W-ANN) Approaches for Rainfall Modeling of Southern Rajasthan, India

Abstract

This paper addresses the challenge of predicting erratic rainfall in Rajasthan state of India, particularly in southern regions. Reliable rainfall predictions are crucial for water resource management and agriculture planning. The research involved selecting 58 stations across seven districts of southern Rajasthan and identifying the best fit computational neural (ANN) and wavelet integrated computational neural (W-ANN) architectures based on performance metrics. Different combinations of input characters, hidden layer neurons, learning algorithms, and training cycles were tested to determine optimal models. Hybrid models, combining wavelet analysis with ANN, were explored to tackle non-stationary hydrologic signals effectively. Results showed that ANN Model C with ten input layer neurons performed best for 74% of stations, followed by Model B (21% of stations) and Model A (5% of stations). Models with increased input and hidden layer neurons performed better. Among the selected stations, 81% of stations demonstrated improved performance using W-ANN models due to effective signal decomposition and information extraction. The hybrid W-ANN models outperformed simple ANN models for rainfall prediction. Both ANN and W-ANN models accurately forecasted weekly rainfall, as observed in the comparison of actual and forecasted values.