Weather-Based Fruit Fly Population Dynamics Prediction Model for the Mid-Hills of Eastern Himalayan Region of India

Abstract

Across the globe, it is widely observed that current change in climate or weather pattern has marked effect on insect population dynamics and behavior, though with varied aspects and intensity. Understanding the correlations of insect population dynamics with weather parameters is the fundamental first step in formulating an effective integrated pest management programme. In the major citrus growing mid-hill regions of Arunachal Pradesh, fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis, is one of the chief reasons for heavy loss leading to pre-harvest fruit drop in citrus. The current study aims to determine how changes in weather parameters influence the population dynamics of fruit flies and to develop an optimized weather-based population prediction model for fruit flies infesting citrus in the mid-hills of Arunachal Pradesh. The population was monitored through standard methyl eugenol para-pheromone traps and a model was developed using stepwise multiple regression technique. The study revealed that the population was highest during the fruit development and ripening stage and it was found that the number of flies per trap and meteorological parameters (temperature and humidity) is positively correlated with appreciable statistical significance. The optimized regression model was developed with variables temperature and humidity, and was found to be 79 percent accurate in the study site. This model will serve as an important tool in pre-estimation of the fruit fly population in the citrus growing mid-hills of Arunachal Pradesh and for formulation of effective preventive management strategies.