Future Changes in Age Structure and Different Migration Scenarios

Abstract

We analyze migration and demographic changes among the six countries of North America (NA) and the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA, i.e. Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador). Together, they comprise a long-standing South-North migration stream, with the United States (US) and Canada being the main destinations for Mexico and the NTCA. Studies that analyze the demographic effects of international migration in origin and destination countries have been limited. In order to fill this gap and explain the implications of recent changes in migration trends and demographic dynamics of the six countries, we study the interrelationship between future changes in the age structure associated with different migration scenarios. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2017 to compare the main demographic indexes and age structure indicators under two prospective scenarios: with and without migration. Current and projected population dynamics suggest convergence in fertility below replacement levels, higher life expectancy, and an overall aging process in the NA-NTCA region. Future migration may slow down the aging process in Canada and the US, have a small effect in Mexico, and speed it up in El Salvador. Taking both the size of the populations and the decrease in young age groups for the main sending countries we have studied, it is unlikely that international migration to the US from Mexico and the NTCA will reach the historic peak observed during the first decade of the 21st century.