Fertility Transition in Brazilian Municipalities: An Exploratory Analysis of Cross-sectional Data in 1991, 2000 and 2010

Abstract

Understanding the fertility transition in Brazil at the municipal scale provides important support for designing and implementing local policies that incorporate spatial heterogeneity into local sociodemographic dimensions. To analyze the heterogeneity of the fertility transition process among Brazilian municipalities over the last two decades, we rewrite the logistic curve equation, estimate the parameters of the national logistic curve and allocate Brazilian municipalities in the national trend using their own total fertility rates. The lag between most and least developed areas persists in either the North or Northeast Region, opposite to what is observed in the South and Southeast. While some municipalities are beyond their time regarding the national average fertility transition, others are at the beginning of the transition. The very fast fertility decline experienced by late runners in the more recent period results in changes in age composition, configuring a challenge that social decision-makers should face.