Herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the Novosibirsk Region population amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Aim. To determine the level of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among the Novosibirsk Region population against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic.Material and methods. The work was carried out in 2 phases: 1) a cross-sectional cohort study performed 28.06– 15.07.2020; 2) longitudinal cohort 3-stage seromonitoring: 1st stage 28.06–15.07.2020; 2nd 14.09–04.10.2020; 3rd 10–30.12.2020 The work was carried out according to a unified methodology developed by Rospotrebnadzor with the participation of St-Petersburg Pasteur Institute, taking into account the recommendations of the WHO. IgG antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein were detected by ELISA using a kit of reagents produced by the SRCMSB (Obolensk) according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Statistical analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel 2010 and other programs.Results. The seroprevalence in the region’s population was 9.1% (95% CI 8.0–10.2): maximum in children 14–17 years old (17.6%, 95% CI 12.3–23.9) and persons over 75 years (14.8%, 95% CI 11.4–18.8), minimum among persons 30–39 years old (4.9%, 95% CI 3.0–8.0). Increased rate was noted among the unemployed (15.4%, 95% CI 9.9–17.1) and other individuals (13.0%, 95% CI 8.6–18.5). Seroprevalence was 33.3% (95% CI 16.3–59.0) in COVID-19 convalescents and 19.0% (95% CI 13.9-25.0) in contact persons. More than 94.7% (95% CI 91.2–97.2) of seropositive individuals were asymptomatic. During the serological monitoring, seroprevalence increased from 7.4% (95% CI 6.2–8.9) at 1st stage 1 to 12.4% (95% CI 10.6–14.3) at 2nd , and 31% (95% CI 28.8–33.3) at 3rd stage.Conclusion. SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity has not reached the threshold level, this does not exclude exacerbation of the epidemic process.