Fragmented sinoatrial dynamics in the prediction of atrial fibrillation: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Abstract

This study is the first demonstration that heart rate fragmentation (HRF), a marker of anomalous sinoatrial dynamics, is an independent predictor of atrial fibrillation (AF). Traditional measures of heart rate variability and two widely used nonlinear measures were not associated with incident AF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Fragmentation measures added value to the strongest contemporary predictors of AF, including ECG-derived parameters, coronary calcification score, serum concentrations of NH2-terminal prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide, and supraventricular ectopy. The computational algorithms for quantification of HRF could be readily incorporated into wearable ECG monitoring devices.