A Study of Systemic Financial Risk Prediction Models in the Insurance Industry

Abstract

Abstract The influence of the stability of the insurance industry on the strength of the financial market cannot be ignored, and the healthy and strong growth of the insurance industry plays an indispensable role in maintaining the stability of the whole society. To fully analyze the influence of the stability of the insurance industry on the strength of the financial market, this paper proposes a prediction model of systemic financial risk. The insurance industry’s systemic financial risk prediction indicators are determined based on the principle of selecting systemic risk factors and indicators. After preprocessing the collected relevant research data, relevant research variables are determined, a Logit prediction model for the systemic risk of the insurance industry is constructed, and a case study is conducted. The data show that the average value of GDP during these 21 years is 379642.64, and it reaches about 2.4 times the average value in 2023. The insurance industry’s economy grows steadily and rapidly. It reached the maximum response in the 10th period (0.04616), i.e., the development of China’s life insurance industry, which has a more obvious role in promoting the development of the economy. It is predicted that China’s financial risk in the insurance industry in the second half of 2024 will have a great probability of being in a low-risk state. Its predicted probability value is close to 1. The insurance industry’s healthy development has a positive impact on economic development, and the insurance industry’s stable development is of great importance to economic development, as evidenced by this study.