Estimating Natural Rate of Interest and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Case of the Czech Republic

Author:

Pikhart Zdeněk1,Froňková Pavla2

Affiliation:

1. University of Economics in Prague , Faculty of Finance and Accounting , W. Churchill Sq.1938/4, 130 67 Prague 3 and also Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic , Department of Economic policy, Macroeconomic Analysis Unit , Letenská 15, 118 10 Prague 1, Czech Republic

2. Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic , Department of Economic policy, Macroeconomic Analysis Unit , Letenská 15, 118 10 Prague 1, Czech Republic

Abstract

Abstract Article deals with estimating real natural interest rate and exchange rate to construct monetary conditions index suitable for the Czech open economy. Despite unobservable characteristics of underlying interest rates and exchange rate, the importance of reference indicators for monetary policy is crucial. Proposed monetary condition index in gap form examines monetary impulse on economic and credit cycle in inflation targeting model.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Reference26 articles.

1. ARCHIBALD, J., HUNTER, L. (2001). What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it? Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Bulletin vol. 64, no. 3, pp. 15-23.

2. BABETSKII, I., BALAZS, E. (2005). Equilibrium Exchange rate in the Czech Republic: How good is the Czech BEER? William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 781.

3. BENCIK, M. (2009). The equilibrium interest rate – theoretical concepts and applications. Slovak National Bank. Vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 1-11.

4. BRAND, C., BIELECKI, M., PENALVER, A. (2018). The Natural Rate of Interest Estimates, Drivers, and Challenges for Monetary Policy. ECB Occassional Paper. Forthcoming.

5. BRUHA, J., TONNER J. (2017). An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-post Assessment of the Czech Experience, Working Papers 2017/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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