Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020

Author:

Bussolo Maurizio1,Capelle Damien2,Lokshin Michael M.1,Torre Iván1,Winkler Hernan1

Affiliation:

1. World Bank , Washington D.C. , District of Columbia United States .

2. International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Abstract During the last quarter century, job tenure in Europe has shortened. Using data from Eurostat Labor Force Surveys of 29 countries from 1995 to 2020 and applying an age-period-cohort decomposition to analyze changes in tenure for specific birth cohorts, we show that tenure has shrunk for cohorts born in more recent years. To account for compositional changes within cohorts, we estimate the probability of holding jobs of different durations, conditional on individual and employment-related characteristics. The estimations demonstrate that, over time, the likelihood of having a medium- or long-term job decreased and holding a short-term job increased. We also find that stricter job protection legislation appears to decrease the probability of holding a short-term job, and higher trade openness and ICT-related technological change are correlated with an increase of that probability.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Subject

Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management,Economics and Econometrics,Industrial relations

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