Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transition of people on the Polish labor market – hidden threats

Abstract

Abstract The article analyzes changes on the Polish labor market after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. It aims to assess the effect of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the transition of people on the labor market in Poland. The decided majority of research into the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market was based exclusively on resource analysis, omitting stream analysis. This research fills this gap and provides analysis by quarter of the transition of people on the labor market between employment, unemployment, and professional inactivity. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a severe drop in the number of people in work in the second quarter of 2020, similar in level to an analogous increase in the number of people professionally inactive. The effects of the pandemic were much more severe for women than for men. Detailed analysis of transitions on the labor market shows that around 50% of jobs lost due to the outbreak of the pandemic were not regained. Many redundancies were permanent, which may translate into a weakening of the dynamic for the recovery of the labor market in the future.