Do Local Political Elections Affect Daily Stock Returns? Evidence from the Republic of North Macedonia's MBI10 Index-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Do Local Political Elections Affect Daily Stock Returns? Evidence from the Republic of North Macedonia's MBI10 Index

Published:2024-01-26 Issue:1 Volume:34 Page:98-116
ISSN:2285-3065
Container-title:Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Deari Fitim¹,Koku Paul Sergius²

Affiliation:

1. South East European University , Faculty of Business and Economics , Tetovo , Republic of North Macedonia

2. Florida Atlantic University , College of Business Boca Raton , Florida , USA

Abstract

Abstract Even though “all politics” are supposedly “local”, as reportedly said Tip O’Neil, the majority of studies on the link between politics and finance focused on presidential elections. This argues that overlooking local elections could result in a gap in the literature, thus it focused on the effect of the 2021 local elections on the stock market in the Republic of North Macedonia. The results could not reject the null hypothesis that local elections did not have any statistically significant effect on the stock prices as only 10% of the stocks traded experienced significant abnormal returns during the election period.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Link

https://www.sciendo.com/pdf/10.2478/sues-2024-0005

Reference42 articles.

1. Allvine, F. C., O’Neill, D. E. (1980), Stock Market Returns and the Presidential Election Cycle: Implications for Market Efficiency, Financial Analysts Journal, 36 (5), 49–56.

2. Alt, J., Crystal, A. K. (1983), Political Economics. Berkeley: University of California Pres.

3. Alt, J.E., Lowry, R.C. (1994), Divided government, fiscal institutions, and budget deficit: evidence from the states, American Political Science Review, 88, 811–828.

4. Alter, A., Goodhart, L. M. (2004), Market Forces? The U.S. Stock Market and Presidential Approval. Unpublished manuscript. Columbia University.

5. Alvarez, M.R., Saving, J. (1997), Deficits, democrats, and distributive benefits: congressional elections and the pork barrel in the 1980s, Political Research Quarterly, 50, 809–831.