Scenarios – the art of bringing the future into today’s decision making!

Abstract

Abstract For more than half a century scenario planning has been part of the toolbox for many strategic planners. The usefulness of the scenario approach is emphasized in turbulent times, as the ones we are living at present. Besides having proven its role in traditional strategic decision making, scenario planning can create value for a number of different purposes. In this article we briefly describe the history of scenario planning and its application in the field of strategy. Our main contribution is in highlighting other application areas for scenarios, like innovation, leadership, branding etc. Scenarios are in our opinion an excellent method to create appreciation for alternatives. And, at best, they contribute to exploration and learning of strategic territories that the decision maker has not been paying attention to. From “thinking the unthinkable” we now use scenarios to spot opportunities and build road maps to preferable futures. A proper scenario process allows disagreement of potential developments become an asset for the organization, fostering a constructive strategic discussion. And uncertainty becomes a friend, not a risk.