Decision-Making Of Innovation Pattern During Development Of Innovation Strategy Of Industrial Enterprise In Conditions Of Uncertainty And Risk

Abstract

Abstract Developing a suitable innovation strategy is crucial for the success of the enterprise and to increase its competitiveness. However, uncertainty and risk should be taken into account when the innovation strategy is developed. The aim of this work offering practical recommendations for the selection of innovation patterns for developing innovation strategy of an enterprise in conditions of uncertainty and risk by using retrospective analysis of innovation activity. Research objectives: Analysis of the concept of pattern-making of innovations and classification of innovations by patterns; development of method of quantitative measurement of innovation patterns and determination of intervals of values of the indicator of innovativeness, corresponding to each pattern; development of methodology and justification for the algorithm for decision-making on the innovation pattern during the development of innovation strategy on the basis of determination of degree of influence of each pattern on the economic indicators of the enterprise. Results of the work: The methodology of decision-making on the selection of innovation pattern, based on a combination of two decision-making methods: grey relational analysis and TODIM with determination of evaluating criteria weights using method IDOCRIW, is developed. Conclusions: The proposed methodology creates the opportunity to select innovation pattern with the least risk during development of innovation strategy of an enterprise because of the combination of calculation of closeness of each alternative to ideal alternative with pairwise comparison of alternatives taking into account expected losses, related to selection of each alternative. The paper proposes a method for choosing an innovation pattern based on a combination of two decision-making methods, largely presented in the works indexed in Scopus and Web of Science: grey relational analysis and the TODIM method. The presented methods of decision-making are based on the determination of the weights of the evaluation criteria, characterizing the significance of each of them. The weights of the criteria are proposed to be calculated using the IDOCRIW method. This method performs an objective determination of the weights of criteria based on determining the degree of dominance of the values of each criterion with simultaneous assessments of losses for each criterion. The proposed methodology allows for a detailed analysis of innovation patterns acting as evaluated alternatives, taking into account all criteria used in the evaluation and also the losses associated with the choice of each alternative.