Dynamics of the African swine fever spread in Poland
Author:
Bocian Łukasz1, Frant Maciej2, Ziętek-Barszcz Anna1, Niemczuk Krzysztof3, Szczotka-Bochniarz Anna2
Affiliation:
1. Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment , Puławy , Poland 2. Department of Swine Diseases, National Veterinary Research Institute , 24-100 Puławy , Poland 3. National Veterinary Research Institute , 24-100 Puławy , Poland
Abstract
Abstract
Introduction
African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal haemorrhagic disease of Suidae, present in Poland since 2014. The natural reservoir of ASF in Europe is the wild boar (Sus scrofa); however, human activity facilitates long-distance introductions of the disease. In ASF control it is important to identify areas at increased risk of infection. Such identification and estimation of the disease’s progress and subsequent spread will help to identify the specific preventive action needs in given zones. Serving this purpose, this study is a spatial and statistical analysis of ASF spread through noted outbreak data.
Material and Methods
The spatial-temporal analysis was conducted on the basis of data including the time and location of all ASF outbreaks both in wild boars and domestic pigs in Poland in 2014–2021.
Results
The analysis indicates possible routes and directions for further ASF spread in Poland, estimates the annual increase of the affected area (approx. 25,000 km2 every year since 2017) and marks trends. The strong method-independent correlation between the year and the surface area affected by African swine fever indicated a near-linear generalised trend.
Conclusion
Given the growth trend, we can expect ASF to expand further into new territories of the country; however, it is important to realise that there is still a significant area to protect, because 60% of Poland remains ASF-free.
Publisher
Walter de Gruyter GmbH
Subject
General Veterinary
Reference43 articles.
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