Extended Deterrence Dilemmas in the Grey Zone: Trans-Atlantic Insights on Baltic Security Challenges1

Author:

Murauskaite Egle1,Quinn David1,Thomson Catarina P.2,Ellis Devin H.1,Wilkenfeld Jonathan1,Gartzke Erik1

Affiliation:

1. University System of Maryland , Maryland United States

2. University of Exeter , Exeter United Kingdom

Abstract

Abstract Should the U.S. respond with military means to a limited Russian incursion in the Baltics? This paper explores Western attitudes towards such a hypothetical grey zone crisis. Using survey experiments and crisis simulations we find considerable reluctance to use military tools in order to support a Baltic ally, and surprisingly little variation across the audiences. The underlying reluctance to get the U.S. involved in an armed conflict with Russia in the hopes that such acquiescence may help preserve global stability indicates that the conflict in Ukraine only had a fundamentally limited impact on Western strategic thought on deterring Russia.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Reference35 articles.

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3. Bragg, B. (2016), “Specifying & systematizing how we think about the gray zone,” NSI, prepared for Strategic Multilayer Assessment, Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Retrieved from http://nsiteam.com/sma-publications/

4. Bueno de Mesquita, B., Morrow, J.D., and Zorick, E.R., 1997, “Capabilities, Perception, and Escalation.” American Political Science Review 91 (1): 15-27.

5. Bumiller, E., “Threats and Responses: the Allies; Bush Appeals To New Allies On Iraq Plans,” New York Times, Nov 24, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/24/world/threats-and-responses-the-allies-bush-appeals-to-new-allies-on-iraq-plans.html

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