Affiliation:
1. 1 Zhejiang Open University , Xiaoshan College , Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311200 , China
Abstract
Abstract
Systemic financial risks not only endanger financial stability but also cause huge losses to the macroeconomy and social wealth. Against the background of the overlapping external risk input from the international financial crisis and China’s own cyclical and structural problems in the transition stage, the risks facing China’s real economy and financial system have risen and gradually emerged, and it has become an important task to construct a monitoring and measurement method for systemic financial risks to effectively identify, prevent and resolve them. In this paper, we will analyze and compare the main factors affecting financial risk from the perspective of Eviews-based econometrics, and construct a comprehensive financial risk assessment system. From the analysis, it can be concluded that In the period from January 2007 to 2015, the closest to the CISFR trend in order are: the real estate market, financial institutions, stock market, money market, bond market, foreign exchange market, and government departments. After 2019, the financial economy has also been affected to some extent by the epidemic and there is a bifurcation. However, the financial market is a complex system with non-linear, self-organizing, and dynamic constant development and change, and financial risks have an evolutionary process of constant generation and development, and the long-term outcome of financial markets and financial risks is uncertain. To improve the accuracy of financial risk early warning also needs to be used in combination with other methods.
Subject
Applied Mathematics,Engineering (miscellaneous),Modeling and Simulation,General Computer Science