Apples to apples, fighters to submarines: comparative analysis of conventional capability-based signalling capacity through technologically weighted state arsenal indexing

Author:

Roberts Lee Habib1

Affiliation:

1. serves as adjunct professor in the International Security program at the Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University , Arlington , VA , USA

Abstract

Abstract In this article, I propose a new contribution to the field of comparative analysis of state conventional military capabilities. First, I review perspectives of other scholars on the merits of comparing capabilities, arguing that the most accessible insights lie in evaluating the signals sent by state arsenals rather than in predicting conflict outcomes judging from state armament. Second, I present the Conventional Firepower Potential Indexing (CFPI) method and demonstrate that coding for tactical role and degree of technological sophistication enables previously unfeasible estimative comparisons of deterrent signalling value. Finally, I apply CFPI analysis to the conventional arsenals of the United States and the four states named in that country’s most recent National Defense Strategy (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran), deriving conclusions that would be elusive without accessible comparative analysis.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Reference49 articles.

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3. Atherton, K. (2021, August 4). Loitering munitions preview the autonomous future of warfare. Brookings. Available at https://www.brookings.edu/articles/loitering-munitions-preview-the-autonomous-future-of-warfare/.

4. Baker, S., & Spirlet, T. (2023, August 24). The world’s most powerful militaries in 2023, ranked. Business Insider. Available at https://www.businessinsider.com/ranked-world-most-power-ful-militaries-2023-firepower-us-china-russia-2023-5.

5. Ben-Haim, Y. (2018). WEI/WUV for assessing force effectiveness: Managing uncertainty with info-gap theory. Military Operations Research, 23 (4), pp. 37-50.

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