Bankruptcy Prediction Model Development and its Implications on Financial Performance in Slovakia

Abstract

Abstract Research purpose. Financial distress being a global phenomenon makes it impact firms in all sectors of the economy and predicting corporate bankruptcy has become a crucial issue in economics. At the beginning of the last century, the first studies aimed to predict corporate bankruptcy were published. In Slovakia, however, several prediction models were developed with a significant delay. The main aim of this paper is to develop a model for predicting bankruptcy based on the financial information of 3,783 Slovak enterprises operating in the manufacturing and construction sectors in 2020 and 2021. Design / Methodology / Approach. A prediction model that uses the appropriate financial indicators as predictors may be developed using multiple discriminant analysis. Multiple discriminant analysis is currently used in prediction model development. In this case, financial health is assessed using several variables that are weighted in order to maximise the difference between the average value calculated in the group of prosperous and non-prosperous firms. When developing a bankruptcy prediction model based on multiple discriminant analysis, it is crucial to determine the independent variables used as primary financial health predictors. Findings. Due to the discriminant analysis results, the corporate debt level of the monitored firms may be regarded as appropriate. Despite the fact that the model identified 215 firms in financial distress due to an insufficient debt level, 3,568 out of 3,783 Slovak enterprises operating in the manufacturing and construction sectors did not have any problems with financing their debts. The self-financing ratio was identified in the developed model as the variable with the highest accuracy. Based on the results, the developed model has an overall discriminant ability of 93% since bankruptcy prediction models require strong discriminating abilities to be used in practice. Originality / Value / Practical implications. The principal contribution of the paper is its application of the latest available data, which could help in more accurate financial stability predictions for firms during the current difficult period. Additionally, this is a ground-breaking research study in Slovakia that models the financial health of enterprises in the post-pandemic period.