Long-Term Economic and Geopolitical Cycles: A Compass to Multilateral Cooperation in Our Age

Abstract

Abstract The birth of modern economics was strongly related to the study of cycles. Economists tried to establish historical cycles, then business cycles and to model even very short-term fluctuations. In the 2000s, the “great moderation” brought about a temporary decline in the interest for longer-term cyclical issues. This was also related to the unipolar moment of US power after the fall of the Soviet Union. The 2008 great financial crisis and the rise of China, however, proved that cycles had not ceased to affect us. The contrary is true: just now, we are witnessing (at least) a rerun of the 1970s with all the implications of energy shocks and geopolitical tensions. Several authors again try to understand cycles; nevertheless, there is a scarcity of studies merging cultural, economic and geopolitical knowledge in this regard. The paper aims to fill this gap by discussing possible interpretations of the current great power dynamics. A complex analysis shows that downward spirals of hegemonic cycles can be escaped. Eurasia as a deep-rooted concept can further catalyse global development and the much-needed cooperative policies towards long-term sustainable growth. The East and the West should be focused on benchmarking the best solutions in the fields of technology, money and the green transition so that a fusion of megatrends benefits each community.