Estimating the maximum rise in temperature according to climate models using abstract interpretation

Author:

Revesz Peter Z.1,Woodward Robert J.1

Affiliation:

1. University of Nebraska–Lincoln , Department of Computer Science & Engineering , Lincoln NE 68588-0115 , USA

Abstract

Abstract Current climate models are complex computer programs that are typically iterated time-step by time-step to predict the next set of values of the climate-related variables. Since these iterative methods are necessarily computed only for a fixed number of iterations, they are unable to answer the natural question whether there is a limit to the rise of global temperature. In order to answer that question we propose to combine climate models with software verification techniques that can find invariant conditions for the set of program variables. In particular, we apply the constraint database approach to software verification to find that the rise in global temperature is bounded according to the common Java Climate Model that implements the Wigley/Raper Upwelling-Diffusion Energy Balance Model climate model.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Reference21 articles.

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2. [2] L. Bernstein et al., Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Cambridge University Press, 2007. ⇒6, 7

3. [3] N. Collins et al., Design and implementation of components in the Earth System Modeling Framework, International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications, Fall/Winter 2005. DOI= 10.1177/1094342005056120. ⇒2110.1177/1094342005056120.21

4. [4] P. Cousot, R. Cousot, Abstract interpretation: A unified lattice model for static analysis of programs by construction or approximation of fixpoints, Proce. ACM Principles on Programming Languages, ACM Press, 1977, pp. 238–252. ⇒1110.1145/512950.512973

5. [5] S. Haesevoets, B. Kuijpers, P. Z. Revesz, Affine-invariant triangulation of spatiotemporal data with an application to image retrieval, ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information6, 4 (2017) 100. 37 pp. ⇒22

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