Better Offensive Strategy in Basketball: A Two-Point or a Three-Point Shot?

Abstract

To better understand and explore the development trend of the offensive strategies of the world’s top basketball leagues, this study took NBA shooting data in the regular seasons from 2009/2010 to 2018/2019 as the samples and analysed the relationships between the shooting score ratio and game win probability, and the practical application of offensive strategies in games. The results showed that (1) increasing the number and the percentage of three-point offenses in the game can improve the probability of winning. However, too many two-point shots can affect the team’s winning probability to a certain extent. (2) The strong teams in the NBA focused more on the outside offense, while the weak teams focused more on the inside offense. (3) Statistical data further showed that whether a team’s opponent is strong or weak, taking the offensive strategy that tends toward the outside shot can lead to a higher game win probability than the offensive strategy that tends toward the inside offense.