Victory Prediction of Ladies Professional Golf Association Players: Influential Factors and Comparison of Prediction Models

Abstract

Abstract This study aims to identify the most accurate prediction model for the possibility of victory from the annual average data of 25 seasons (1993–2017) of the Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA), and to determine the importance of the predicting factors. The four prediction models considered in this study were a decision tree, discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and artificial neural network analysis. The mean difference in the classification accuracy of these models was analyzed using SPSS 22.0 software (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA) and the one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). When the prediction was based on technical variables, the most important predicting variables for determining victory were greens in regulation (GIR) and putting average (PA) in all four prediction models. When the prediction was based on the output of the technical variables, the most important predicting variable for determining victory was birdies in all four prediction models. When the prediction was based on the season outcome, the most important predicting variables for determining victory were the top 10 finish% (T10) and official money. A significant mean difference in classification accuracy was observed while performing the one-way ANOVA, and the least significant difference post-hoc test showed that artificial neural network analysis exhibited higher accuracy than the other models, especially, for larger data sizes. From the results of this study, it can be inferred that the player who wants to win the LPGA should aim to increase GIR, reduce PA, and improve driving distance and accuracy through training to increase the birdies chance at each hole, which can lead to lower average strokes and increased possibility of being within T10.