Price Index Numbers under Large-Scale Demand Shocks–The Japanese Experience of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:

Abe Naohito1,Inoue Toshikatsu1,Sato Hideyasu2

Affiliation:

1. The Institute of Economic Research , Hitotsubashi University , Institute of Economic Research 2-1 , Naka, Kunitachi , Tokyo , , Japan .

2. Department of Food and Nutritional Sciences , Toyo University , 1-1-1 Izumino, Itakura-machi, Ora-gun, Gunma 374-0193 , Japan .

Abstract

Abstract We investigate the prices and quantities of face masks when the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic was particularly serious to understand the impact of demand shocks on the cost of living index (COLI). Using a recently developed index number formula that is exact for the constant elasticity of substitution utility function with variable preferences, we quantified the degree of demand shock caused by the pandemic. Our empirical analysis revealed that shifts in preferences during the pandemic were so large that the COLI with variable tastes became very different from the standard superlative indexes. While the prices of face masks decreased in the Fisher index in May 2020 by 0.76% per week, the COLI increased by 1.92% per week.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Reference13 articles.

1. Abe, N., and D.S.P. Rao. 2020. Generalized Logarithmic Index Numbers with Demand Shocks-Bridging the Gap between Theory and Practice. Tokyo: Hitotsubashi University. (RCESR Discussion Paper Series NO.DP20-1) Available at: https://risk.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/Japanese/pdf/dp20-1_rcesr.pdf (accessed February 2022).

2. Balk, B.M. 1989. “Changing Consumer Preferences and the Cost-of-Living Index: Theory and Nonparametric Expressions.” Journal of Economics 50(2): 157–169. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01239124.10.1007/BF01239124

3. Bradley, R. 2005. “Pitfalls of using unit values as a price measure or price index.” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 30: 39–61. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.3233/-JEM-2005-0243.10.3233/JEM-2005-0243

4. Diewert, W.E. 2018. Scanner Data, Elementary Price Indexes and the Chain Drift Problem. Vancouver: Vancouver school of Economics. (Microeconomics.ca working papers erwin_diewert-2018-10, revised 25 Oct 2018.) Available at: https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/849511558350534104/pdf/ICP-TAG03-S34-RD-Diewert-on-Scanner-Data-and-Elementary-Price-Indexes.pdf (accessed February 2022).

5. Feenstra, R.C. 1994. “New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices.” American Economic Review 84(1): 157–177. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2117976 (accessed February 2022).

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