Substitution Bias in the Measurement of Import and Export Price Indices: Causes and Correction

Abstract

Abstract The import and export price indices of an economy are usually compiled by some Laspeyres type index. It is well known that such an index formula is prone to substitution bias. Therefore, also the terms of trade (ratio of export and import price index) are likely to be distorted. The underlying substitution bias accumulates over time. The present article introduces a simple and transparent retroactive correction approach that addresses the source of the substitution bias and produces meaningful long-run time series of import and export price levels and, therefore, of the terms of trade. Furthermore, an empirical case study is conducted that demonstrates the efficacy and versatility of the correction approach.