Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates

Published:2022-06-01 Issue:2 Volume:38 Page:399-428
ISSN:2001-7367
Container-title:Journal of Official Statistics
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Chen Baoline¹,McElroy Tucker S.²,Pang Osbert C.²

Affiliation:

1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis , 4600 Silver Hill Road, Washington DC 20233, U.S.A.

2. U.S. Census Bureau , 4600 Silver Hill Road, Washington DC 20233-9100, U.S.A.

Abstract

Abstract There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This article aims to bring clarity to this topic by (1) summarizing the techniques and methodologies used in these studies; (2) arguing for a sound methodological framework for evaluating claims of residual seasonality; and (3) proposing three diagnostic tests for detecting residual seasonality, applying them to different vintages and different sample spans of data on real GDP and its major components from the U.S. national accounts and making comparisons with results from the previous studies.

Publisher

Walter de Gruyter GmbH

Link

https://www.sciendo.com/pdf/10.2478/jos-2022-0020

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