Long-Term Labor Force Projections in Romania: An Analysis Based on Data on the Economic Impact of Population Aging

Abstract

Abstract In the last 30 years, Romania has faced one of the most significant migration phenomena globally, losing over two million inhabitants according to official statistics. However, these figures are reported based on the registered domicile of the population, with many immigrants avoiding changing their residence in Romania, even though they live and work in other countries for decades. This migration has primarily affected the active population, leading to an increasing deficit in Romania's labor market in recent years. Current estimates already indicate a shortage of personnel in sectors such as technology, healthcare, education, or construction. For the year 2024, Romania has approved a new quota of 100,000 foreign workers to address this issue. This decision was made due to the high number of work permit requests in the last 12 months and the significant number of job vacancies reported by employers. This study aims to use methodologies employed by the OECD and the European Commission to project long-term labor force trends in Romania (until 2070) in comparison with other EU member states, anticipating the economic impact of population aging.