Excess Injury Mortality in Washington State During the 2021 Heat Wave

Author:

Casey Joan A.1,Parks Robbie M.1,Bruckner Tim A.1,Gemmill Alison1,Catalano Ralph1

Affiliation:

1. Joan A. Casey and Robbie M. Parks are with the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY. Tim A. Bruckner is with the Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine. Alison Gemmill is with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD. Ralph Catalano is with the School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley.

Abstract

Objectives. To determine whether the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave resulted in excess injury (both unintentional and intentional) deaths. Methods. With US death certificate data from December 29, 2013, to July 31, 2021, we generated weekly counts of injury deaths in Washington State and the rest of the country. We used time-series methods to identify excess injury deaths that may have occurred during and following the anomalously warm temperature period based on those expected from history and from simultaneous deaths in the remainder of the United States. Results. Beginning the week including June 25, 2021 (heat wave initiation), 3 weeks exceeded the expected count of injury deaths in Washington State, with an estimated total of 159 excess injury deaths (95% detection interval = 122, 195) during the 3-week period. Conclusions. The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave was associated with an increase in injury deaths. Public Health Implications. Under global warming scenarios, heat waves of this magnitude will become much more common. Adaptation and planning efforts are needed to protect residents of the historically temperate Pacific Northwest for a range of health outcomes. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(6):657–660. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307269 )

Publisher

American Public Health Association

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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