Association Between the New York SAFE Act and Firearm Suicide and Homicide: An Analysis of Synthetic Controls, New York State, 1999‒2019

Abstract

Objectives. To assess the association between the New York Secure Ammunition and Firearms Enforcement Act (NY SAFE Act) and firearm suicide and homicide rates. Methods. We employed a synthetic controls approach to investigate the impact of the NY SAFE Act on firearm suicide and firearm homicide rates. We collected state-level data on firearm mortality from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database for the period 1999–2019. We derived statistical inference by using a permutation-based in-place placebo test. Results. The implementation of the NY SAFE Act was associated with a significant reduction in firearm homicide rates, demonstrating a decrease of 63%. This decrease corresponds to an estimated prevention of 1697 deaths between 2013 and 2019. However, there was no association between the NY SAFE Act and firearm suicide rates. Conclusions. As the responsibility for enacting firearm policies increasingly falls on states instead of the federal government, this study provides valuable information that can assist states in making evidence-based decisions regarding the development and implementation of firearm policies that prioritize public safety and aim to prevent firearm-related fatalities. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(12):1309–1317. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307400 )