Trends and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Dengue Cases in Northeast Malaysia

Abstract

Objectives: Dengue remains hyperendemic in Malaysia despite extensive vector control activities. With dynamic changes in land use, urbanisation and population movement, periodic updates on dengue transmission patterns are crucial to ensure the implementation of effective control strategies. We sought to assess shifts in the trends and spatial patterns of dengue in Kelantan, a north-eastern state of Malaysia (5°15’N 102°0’E).Methods: This study incorporated data from the national dengue monitoring system (eDengue system). Confirmed dengue cases registered in Kelantan with disease onset between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018 were included in the study. Yearly changes in dengue incidence were mapped by using ArcGIS. Hotspot analysis was performed using Getis-Ord Gi to track changes in the trends of dengue spatial clustering.Results: A total of 10 645 dengue cases were recorded in Kelantan between 2016 and 2018, with an average of 10 dengue cases reported daily (standard deviation, 11.02). Areas with persistently high dengue incidence were seen mainly in the coastal region for the 3-year period. However, the hotspots shifted over time with a gradual dispersion of hotspots to their adjacent districts.Conclusions: A notable shift in the spatial patterns of dengue was observed. We were able to glimpse the shift of dengue from an urban to peri-urban disease with the possible effect of a state-wide population movement that affects dengue transmission.