Tourist destination development: Modeling and forecasting

Abstract

This article deals with the creation and development of the tourist destinations. The authors describe different types of development-related destination appeal, propose a logically interconnected sequence of stages in the formation of the desired profile of a tourist destination, and show that, in order to ensure effective functioning, it is imperative that economic and mathematical modeling to assess the potential of the current and achievable competitiveness of tourist destinations be used. The proposed model allows to calculate the quantitative effect of attracting investment to the development of tourist destinations. The defining characteristics are the coefficient of efficiency of economic activity of a tourist destination, and the efficiency ratio of a tourist destination. The authors introduce a new measure — the coefficient of tourist loyalty to a destination (coefficient of return tourist business) and propose a formula for calculating the integral index of the efficiency (competitiveness) of a tourist destination. In the article, the authors consider the basic principles of forecasting, which are to be taken into account in the course of the development-forecast model construction; provide a description of forecast models, and identify the properties required of an efficient forecasting model.