GLOBAL DECARBONIZATION: CURRENT TRENDS AND FORECASTS

Abstract

The scientific article provides an analysis of data on the dynamics of changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere, its relationship with an increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface and further measures related to the decarbonization of industry. When analyzing theoretical materials, it was revealed that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere increased from 270 to 419 parts per million (ppm), which ultimately led to an increase in temperature on the planet by 1.1°C over the past 150 years. If the current rate of growth in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is maintained, the increase in the average global temperature may exceed 4°C, which will have catastrophic consequences. In terms of CO2 emissions, China ranks first in the world (28,8% of the total global emissions), followed by the United States (14,5%). Next are the European Union (9,7%), India (7,3%), Russia (4.5%) and Japan (3,3%), etc. To keep the average temperature rise within 1.5°C, the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation should increase in 2050 to at least 70-85 percent. At the same time, the share of natural gas, provided that technologies for capturing and storing CO2 are used, will decrease to 8% (from 3 to 11% according to different scenarios), while the share of coal will decrease to almost 0% (0-2%)