A look into the future: System-dynamic modeling of the political transformation of regional elites (Russia, 2021–2035)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the ways in which the Russian regional administrative and political elites can change in 2021–2035. The authors attempted not only to find the most positive variants, but also to assess their probability and to describe the conditions for their implementation. There are seven predictive scenarios for the development of regional elites, which were constructed as a result of computer experiments with a system-dynamic model. The developed model is implemented in Powersim Studio 10. The model encompasses the main mechanisms and channels for recruiting elites as well as actors that have influenced the elite substitution system. The study is a follow-up to the work that was published in the Journal of Political Research and devoted to realistic and counterfeit scenarios of elite transformation in 1985–2019. The geographic framework within which the model can be applied spans — with some caveats — the European part of Russia. Modeling showed that some predictive scenarios are negative and even catastrophic for the progress of regional elites and for relations «federal center — regions». Moreover, such scenarios can be initiated not only by some unlikely events like the «Russian Maidan» (Ukrainization scenario), but also by erroneous actions of the federal government (Regency scenario). It has been revealed that the introduction of unified principles of monitoring and analysis, as well as centralized personnel management (Technocracy scenario) in the regions can solve all three key problems of elite evolution — namely, maintaining elite loyalty, achieving their acceptable quality, and gaining legitimacy.