Information Analysis System for Evaluation of Fire-risk Seasons Intensity

Abstract

The paper develops a method of calculating the fire-risk seasons intensity index. It creates an information analysis system for significant rates’ determination, interpolation and calculation of boundary values, calculation of intensity index on the basis of partial and generalized desirability functions, examining tendencies and causes of fire intensity change. The system is designed for assessment of fire-risk seasons based on the range of natural-anthropogenic factors, and for analysis of formation, tendencies and causes of fire-danger for vegetation in different regions. System verification was processed in the Khabarovsk territory and Jewish autonomous region and illustrated through seasons of the second half of XX – beginning of XXI centuries. It revealed a high correlation rate between intensity index and fire density, and indicated areas with low, medium and high intensity.