Interactive computer model for aurora forecast and analysis

Abstract

An interactive computer model of a short-term (with a horizon 30–70 min) forecast of aurora intensity has been developed in the form of a web-based geoinformation system. The OVATION-Prime empirical model is used as the basic software, which establishes statistical relationships between parameters of the solar wind, the interplanetary magnetic field, and auroral particle fluxes. On the basis of this model, a system has been built which simulates the spatial planetary distribution of the probability of observing auroras and a number of accompanying quantities. Data visualization is carried out on the basis of the virtual globe technology and is provided to the end user via a specialized web service. The forecast has been verified by comparing the model predictions with the data from 16 cameras conducting continuous observations of the auroras in the visible spectrum. The proportion of coincidences between the predicted and observed auroras was 86 %. The developed service enables both forecasting and analysis of past events. The system allows us to compare the spatial distribution of probability of auroras with railway transport systems for the territory of the Russian Federation.