Temporal Trend and Spatial Distribution of Drug Poisoning in Semnan Province: A Retrospective Longitudinal Study

Abstract

Background: Substance abuse and the risks of its consequences are the major public health problems in the world and Iran. Objectives: The objective of the present study is determination the epidemiological status and spatial distribution of high-risk and low-risk clusters along with estimating the relative risk of drug poisoning in Semnan in 8 years. Methods: A descriptive-analytical and retrospective longitudinal study was conducted that examined all 3360 poisoned patients who referred to the hospitals of Semnan province from 2011 - 2018. The total number of visits was received and analyzed by year with the relevant diagnostic code in ICD-10 from hospitals of the province, and data were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis, global Moran’s index and Kuldorff's spatial statistic scan at a significant level of 0.05. Results: The number of clients varied from 219 in 2011 to 570 in 2015. The patients' mean age was 26.7 years. The average annual number of cases per one hundred thousand individuals (annual cases/100000) was 598.4. The AAPC of the incidence of drug poisoning was 9.8 and significant in the whole province, demonstrating that the incidence of poisoning increased by an average of 9.8% per year in the whole province from 2011 to 2018. Semnan County with LLR = 533.07 was the most likely low-risk cluster, and Shahroud County was the most likely high-risk cluster with LLR = 219.94. Conclusions: Drug policies need to be adapted to the geographical differences in the place death. After clustering regions in poisoning incidents, the necessary interventions can be concentrated for these specific geographical locations.