Validity of Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 score as an Outcome Predictor in Pediatric ICU of a Public Sector Tertiary Care Hospital in Pakistan

Abstract

AbstractPediatric Index of Mortality 2 (PIM-2) is one of the leading mortality scores used in intensive care units all around the world. We assessed its validity as an outcome predictor in a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of Mayo Hospital/King Edward Medical University Lahore, Pakistan. We enrolled 154 consecutive admissions, aged 1 month to 13 years, requiring intensive care from January to June of 2019. Patient demographics along with PIM-2 data were collected; PIM-2 score and mortality risk was calculated; and the outcome recorded as death or survival. The median age at admission was 0.50 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 0.24–1.78) and the median weight was 5.0 kg (IQR: 3.08–10.0) with females constituting 54%; malnutrition was also common (66%). Observed mortality was 29.9% (46 out of 154) and expected mortality (cut-off ≥ 99.8%) was 27.9% with a standardized mortality ratio of 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79–1.41). Sepsis was the most common diagnosis at admission (27.9%) with the highest mortality (52.2%). Chi-square analysis revealed a sensitivity of 54.3% and a specificity of 83.3% (p-value 0.00). PIM-2 score showed acceptable discrimination between survivors and nonsurvivors with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.67–0.84) (p-value = 0.00); however, poor calibration according to Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test (Chi-square = 15.80, df = 7, and p-value of 0.027 [< 0.1]), thus requiring recalibration according to local population characteristics.