Use of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves to Evaluate Computer Confidence Threshold and Clinical Performance in the Diagnosis of Appendicitis

Abstract

This paper uses simple receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (i) to study the effect of varying computer confidence of threshold levels and (ii) to evaluate clinical performance in the diagnosis of acute appendicitis. Over 1300 patients presenting to five centres with abdominal pain of short duration were studied in varying detail. Clinical and computer-aided diagnostic predictions were compared with the »final« diagnosis. From these studies it is concluded the simplistic setting of a 50/50 confidence threshold for the computer program is as »good« as any other. The proximity of a computer-aided system changed clinical behaviour patterns; a higher overall performance level was achieved and clinicians performance levels became associated with the »mildly conservative« end of the computers ROC curve. Prior forecasts of over-confidence or ultra-caution amongst clinicians using the computer-aided system have not been fulfilled.