Condition-specific growth in occupied beds in England following a sudden and unexpected increase in deaths

Abstract

Since 2011, there has been a rise in deaths in all countries of the UK. Less well known is that this has been accompanied by an increase in occupied beds for certain conditions, and a mysterious reduction for other conditions. Scepticism should be raised when explanations based on austerity are concerned as they do not align with the available evidence discussed in this article. Conditions showing the highest growth per annum over the study period (2012/13 to 2017/18) include: other infections and parasitic diseases; bacterial diseases including sepsis; risk because of communicable diseases; lung diseases; hypertensive diseases; other viral diseases; influenza and pneumonia; and upper respiratory infections. Several types of cancer show elevated per annum growth as well, including skin, lymphoid and haematopoietic, thyroid and endocrine and bone and cartilage. This article shows the absolute necessity to include deaths as a key variable in capacity planning and establishes that rising deaths over the next 35 years will significantly change the case-mix of hospital bed occupancy.