Comprehensive clinical-molecular transplant scoring system for myelofibrosis undergoing stem cell transplantation

Abstract

Abstract Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is curative in myelofibrosis, and current prognostic scoring systems aim to select patients for transplantation. Here, we aimed to develop a prognostic score to determine prognosis after transplantation itself, using clinical, molecular, and transplant-specific information from a total of 361 patients with myelofibrosis. Of these, 205 patients were used as a training cohort to create a clinical-molecular myelofibrosis transplant scoring system (MTSS), which was then externally validated in a cohort of 156 patients. Multivariable analysis on survival identified age at least 57 years, Karnofsky performance status lower than 90%, platelet count lower than 150 × 109/L, leukocyte count higher than 25 × 109/L before transplantation, HLA-mismatched unrelated donor, ASXL1 mutation, and non-CALR/MPL driver mutation genotype being independent predictors of outcome. The uncorrected concordance index for the final survival model was 0.723, and bias-corrected indices were similar. Risk factors were incorporated into a 4-level MTSS: low (score, 0-2), intermediate (score, 3-4), high (score, 5), and very high (score, >5). The 5-year survival according to risk groups in the validation cohort was 83% (95% confidence interval [CI], 71%-95%), 64% (95% CI, 53%-75%), 37% (95% CI, 17%-57%), and 22% (95% CI, 4%-39%), respectively (P < .001). Increasing score was predictive of nonrelapse mortality (P < .001) and remained applicable to primary (0.718) and post-essential thrombocythemia (ET)/polycythemia vera (PV) myelofibrosis (0.701) improving prognostic ability in comparison with all currently available disease-specific systems. In conclusion, this MTSS predicts outcome of patients with primary and post-ET/PV myelofibrosis undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation.