Optimization of a fuzzy model used for the prevention of floods in homes surrounding zones of risk in the river Magdalena

Abstract

Floods are a climatic phenomena that affect different regions worldwide and that produces both human and material losses; for example in 2017, six of the worst floods were the cause of 3.273 deaths worldwide. In Colombia, the strong winter wave presented between 2010 and 2011, caused 1,374 deaths and 1,016 missing persons. The main river in Colombia is the Magdalena, which provides great benefits to the country but is also susceptible to flooding. This article presents a proposal to optimize a fuzzy system to prevent flooding in homes adjacent to areas of risk to the Magdalena River. The method used is based on evolutionary algorithms to perform a global search, including a gradient-based algorithm to improve the solution obtained. The best result achieved was the Mean Square Error (MSE) of 7, 83E - 05. As a conclusion, it is needed to employ optimization methods for the adjustment of parameters of the fuzzy system when considering that the sets and the rules are systematically obtained.