Heating load prediction in buildings using decision tree machine learning method

Abstract

In recent years, the burgeoning imperative of energy-efficient building management practices has surged dramatically, underscoring an urgent mandate for comprehensive studies that integrate cutting-edge optimization algorithms with precise heating load forecasting techniques. These studies are not merely endeavors; they represent concerted efforts to increase building energy efficiency and address mounting concerns regarding sustainability and resource utilization. In the intricate domain of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, energy optimization challenges are being meticulously confronted through rigorous exploration and the application of innovative problem-solving methodologies. This pioneering study introduces groundbreaking methodologies by seamlessly integrating two state-of-the-art optimization algorithms— the Red Fox Optimization and the Golden Eagle Optimizer— with the Decision Tree model. This fusion is aimed at enhancing the accuracy of heating load predictions and streamlining HVAC system optimization processes, marking a significant leap toward achieving heightened energy efficiency and operational efficacy in building management practices. The study emphasizes the significance of precise heating load prediction in advancing energy efficiency, realizing cost savings, and fostering environmental sustainability in building management. Furthermore, it delves into the multifaceted impact of various building features on heating load, encompassing variables such as glazing area, orientation, height, relative compactness, roof area, surface area, and wall area. These insights furnish actionable intelligence for refined decision-making processes in both building design and operation. Based on the results, the DT single model experienced the weakest performance among the three models, with R2 = 0.975 and RMSE = 1.608. The model DTFO (DT + FOX) achieves an extraordinary R2 value of 0.996 and RMSE value of 0.961 for heating load prediction, surpassing the performance benchmarks set by other models. This achievement holds considerable promise for aiding engineers in crafting energy-efficient buildings, particularly within the swiftly evolving landscape of smart home technologies.