Two-step model based on XGBoost for predicting artwork prices in auction markets

Abstract

Art markets globally have grown, making artwork an investment of note. Precise valuation is pivotal for optimal returns. We introduce a two-step model with a two-level regressor, utilizing extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) for accurate artwork price prediction. The model encompasses a price-class classifier and regressors for individual categories. This captures diverse factor influences, combining predictions to reduce misclassification risks. Visual features further enhance accuracy through the second-step two-level regressor. Experiments on Korean art auction data demonstrate the superiority of our two-step model with the two-level regressor over one-step and two-step alternatives, as well as the hedonic pricing model. While visual features affected one- and two-step models’ training, they boosted performance when integrated into the second-level decision tree, reducing first-level residuals. This emphasizes the two-level regressor’s efficacy in incorporating visual elements for artwork valuation. Our study highlights the potential of our approach in the field of artwork valuation.