Environmental Assessment of Future Potential Evaporation for Al-Najaf Governorate, Iraq through Evaluating Various Estimation Methods Using Statistical Downscaling Model

Abstract

The hydrological cycle in nature is affected by climate changes, which are reflected in the water resources on the Earth (surface and underground) as evapotranspiration, thereby causing water scarcity. Increasing global temperature rates have exacerbated evaporation rates (PET). To estimate PET, scientists invented many mathematical equations, the most prominent of which is the Penman-Monteith equation. Most of the innovative methods require the provision of many parameters to be implemented; therefore, feasibly worthless for application in data mingy regions. The performance of the four PET estimation methods has been investigated depending either on temperature or radiation observed at Al-Najaf Governorate, Iraq. The accuracy and efficiency of each method have been evaluated with the outputs of the reference Penman-Monteith method. Through assessment, Hargreaves Samani temperature-based method reveals high acceptability of the estimated PET than the Jensen-Haise method and the other radiation-based methods (Penman and Makkink). The Statistical Downscaling Model/Tool (SDSM version 5.2) is applied to predict temperature values for the years 2050 and 2100. Estimated PET using Hargreaves Samani formula for 2050 and 2100 shows that Al-Najaf Governorate will encounter severe water scarcity due to the expected future increase in evaporation rates. Overall, regions classified as dry with high temperatures are compatible with methods of estimating PET values that depend on temperatures more than those that depend on radiation.