Simulation Model for Project Duration Estimation with Parameters Extraction Method from Accumulated Data

Abstract

A framework combining project simulation model with extracted uncertainty parameters from past data is proposed in this paper. In the existing simulation models which take uncertainty elements into consideration, a large number of input parameters are requested. However, most of these parameters are difficult or time-consuming to state. The aim of this paper is to provide a possible solution proposing a new simulation model based on extracted parameters and setting up a protocol to extract uncertainty parameters from past log data. The output of the simulation model will be the project duration, giving feedback to the design of human resource. The proposed protocol includes a definition of necessary past data and how to calculate minimum work amount, delay probability and rework probability. On the other hand, the proposed simulation model includes basic model describing project structures such as task dependency and resource skills, delay model describing variation of task work amount, and rework model describing transition among different tasks. Besides, in the case study, we test the program of the proposed framework constructed of the parameter extracting protocol and the simulation model. After that, we apply the framework on a project introduced in existing research. Two human resource strategies are considered of, on the basis of the duration estimation results. The conclusion of this study is that the proposed framework is able to conduct duration estimation and support the decision-making process around human resource at the early stage of a project.