To GDP and beyond: The past and future history of the world’s most powerful statistical indicator

Abstract

Gross domestic product (GDP) is unquestionably one of the most influential statistical indicators in history. It is more than a statistic – it not only measures the global economy but defines it. But from the outset there have been criticisms of GDP. Today there are a growing number of commentators arguing that GDP has outlived its usefulness. Their criticisms can be broadly categorized into three classes. The first are measurement problems within the existing framework arising from changes in the economy and society – most notably globalization and digitalization. The second set of criticisms deal with the limits of the SNA framework itself and are sometimes described by the catchall “Beyond GDP” and center on questions as to whether the SNA can or should measure well-being and sustainability. The third is that the construction of GDP promotes a ‘growth-at-all-costs’ ideology which works against environmental and social reforms. This paper summarizes the origins of the SNA and GDP and some of the crucial events and thinking that helped shape its design. The most important criticisms and challenges that will shape the future development of the SNA are also outlined, in particular: globalization, digitalization, well-being and sustainability. As both well-being and sustainability go well beyond traditional measurements of the economy, the paper discusses whether it is possible to address at least some aspects of these issues within the SNA, either in the ‘core’ sequence of economic accounts, or through a broadened set of accounts. The paper concludes with an overview of the 2025 SNA update and new work beginning at the UN to encourage member states to move beyond GDP.