A novel grey model of impulse delay and its application in forecasting stock price

Abstract

The stock market is an important embodiment of a national economy and financial activities and has an important impact on a country, enterprises and individuals. Stock forecasting can allow investment institutions and investors to understand the trend of the stock market in advance, which is a challenging and meaningful study. First, through the impulse phenomenon of the stock market, this paper discusses the problem of stock price prediction with delay, and the impulse delay differential equation is established. Second, according to the difference between the differential and the difference, the nonlinear delay grey prediction model is established. Next, the model parameters are estimated and the solving steps are obtained. The nonlinear parameters and delay time are optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm. Finally, the new model is applied to the prediction of the Shanghai stock market and the Shenzhen stock market closing indexes; the results show that the new model can effectively predict stock prices, which is much better than the existing four grey models and a time series model.