Efficacy of the confinement policies on the COVID-19 spread dynamics in the early period of the pandemic

Abstract

Spread dynamics and the confinement policies of COVID-19 exhibit different patterns for different countries. Numerous factors affect such patterns within each country. Examining these factors, and analyzing the confinement practices allow government authorities to implement effective policies in the future. In addition, they help the authorities to distribute healthcare resources optimally without overwhelming their systems. In this empirical study, we use a clustering-based approach, Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) on time-series data to capture the spread patterns at various countries. We particularly investigate the confinement policies adopted by different countries and their impact on the spread patterns of COVID-19. We limit our investigation to the early period of the pandemic, because many governments tried to respond rapidly and aggressively in the beginning. Moreover, these governments adopted diverse confinement policies based on trial-and-error in the beginning of the pandemic. We found that implementations of the same confinement policies may exhibit different results in different countries. Specifically, lockdowns become less effective in densely populated regions, because of the reluctance to comply with social distancing measures. Lack of testing, contact tracing, and social awareness in some countries forestall people from self-isolation and maintaining social distance. Large labor camps with unhealthy living conditions also aid in high community transmissions in countries depending on foreign labor. Distrust in government policies and fake news instigate the spread in both developed and under-developed countries. Large social gatherings play a vital role in causing rapid outbreaks almost everywhere. An early and rapid response at the early period of the pandemic is necessary to contain the spread, yet it is not always sufficient.