Comparison of machine learning methods in predicting binary and multi-class occupational accident severity

Abstract

Although Machine Learning (ML) is widely used to examine hidden patterns in complex databases and learn from them to predict future events in many fields, utilization of it for predicting the outcome of occupational accidents is relatively sparse. This study utilized diversified ML algorithms; Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Single C5.0 Tree (C5), Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB), and Neural Network (NN) in classifying the severity of occupational accidents in binary (Fatal/NonFatal) and multi-class (Fatal/Major/Minor) outcomes. Comparison of the performance of models showed Balanced Accuracy to be the best for SVM and SGB methods in 2-Class and SGB in 3-Class. Algorithms performed better at predicting fatal accidents compared to major and minor accidents. Results obtained revealed that, ML unveils factors contributing to severity to better address the corrective actions. Furthermore, taking action related to even some of the most significant factors in complex accidents database with many attributes can prevent majority of severe accidents. Interpretation of most significant factors identified for accident prediction suggest the following corrective measures: taking fall prevention actions, prioritizing workplace inspections based on the number of employees, and supplementing safety actions according to worker’s age and experience.