An incremental approach to forecasting and classification of taxi demand based on evolving fuzzy systems

Abstract

Private transport has become a viable and increasingly popular alternative to urban transportation. However, with this growth, an old and recurring problem becomes more latent: the relationship between passenger demands and taxi supply. This problem suggests the creation and use of techniques which make it possible to reduce the gap between the demand for taxi passengers and the effective contingent of vehicles needed to meet this demand. This work introduces a new approach to forecasting and classifying taxi passengers’ demands. The proposed approach uses historical data from taxi rides and meteorological data. The Kruskal-Wallis method identifies the most relevant variables, and an evolving fuzzy system performs demand forecasting/classification. Five evolving systems are evaluated with our approach: Autonomous Learning Multi-Model (ALMMo), evolving Multivariable Gaussian Fuzzy System (eMG), evolving Fuzzy with Multivariable Gaussian Participatory Learning and Recursive Maximum Correntropy (eFCE), evolving Fuzzy with Multivariable Gaussian Participatory Learning and Multi-Innovations Recursive Weighted Least Squares (eFMI), and evolving Neo-Fuzzy Neuron (eNFN). In addition, computational experiments using real-world data were conducted to evaluate and compare the performance of the proposed approach. The results revealed that it obtained performance superior or comparable to state-of-the-art ones. Therefore, the experimental results suggest that the proposed approach is promising as an alternative for forecasting and classifying taxi passenger demand.